2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay:

Nominees:

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester By The Sea

20th Century Women


Predicted Winner:

Manchester By The Sea

manchester-by-the-sea-casey-affleck-lucas-hedges-promo
Source: CBS News

The writing categories are often difficult to predict as each award ceremony has different views of what makes an original or adapted screenplay. For example, the WGA just awarded this award to Moonlight, yet that film is not nominated here, but instead in the Adapted Screenplay category. That provides us with little information or evidence from the WGA for any other film to win, but it does show how much momentum Moonlight has overall. So which film has the best shot of winning that is actually nominated? Manchester By The Sea seems like the logical pick. Even though it missed out on the Golden Globe (that can be attributed to the HFPA’s obvious love for La La Land), it did go on to win the BAFTA, even with La La Land doing very well overall there. MBTS also seems like the sort of film this award would go to. It’s a deep, emotional, family drama opposed to the musical that is La La Land. La La Land certainly could win though, especially with the chance it will sweep and with the Globe in its pocket, but musicals do not have a good reputation in the writing categories, with much of their praise going to the song-writers. It is also worth noting that both MBTS and LLL are written by the same person that directed the film. As Damien Chazelle of La La Land is likely to win Best Director, the Academy may share the awards out and give Manchester By The Sea Director and Writer Kenneth Lonergan this award as a consolation prize.

There isn’t much more to this race, as it lacks the precursors of that of the acting categories. However, if anything was to win other than Manchester By The Sea or La La Land, that would be a shock. Hell or High Water has a slight chance due to its political subject matter and Taylor Sheridan’s reputation as a young writer, but certainly don’t expect to see The Lobster or 20th Century Women winning.

Potential Spoiler: La La Land

Find all my Oscar predictions HERE

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One thought on “2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

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