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Best Motion Picture- Drama
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- Manchester By The Sea: Predicted Spoiler
- Moonlight: Predicted Winner
This is a particularly hard category to predict. Normally by this stage of the awards circuit we will have some sort of idea of a front-runner or atleast the Top 2. But this year, with the front runner, La La Land, being in the Comedy/Musical category, we are practically having to pick the number 2. Moonlight seems like the logical choice due to it winning multiple Best Film awards from guilds and festivals and focussing on important (particularly currently for the typically liberal HFPA) subject matter, but Manchester By The Sea has also picked up a few previous titles and is extremely competitive in other categories. Manchester is likely to win the screenplay category, so that could push it ahead, but that may also be its consolation prize. Don’t be surprised if Hacksaw Ridge wins however, as due to its impressive nomination haul and the Globes possibly wanting to be the first major awards to give back credit to Mel Gibson, this film also has a good shot. Hell or High Water and Lion have little chance (due to a lack of director noms or previous Best Film wins), but if either won, it wouldn’t be a shocker.
Best Actor- Drama
- Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea)- Predicted Winner
- Joel Edgerton (Loving)
- Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
- Viggo Mortenson (Captain Fantastic)
- Denzel Washington (Fences)- Spoiler
Casey Affleck has got incredible momentum going into the Globes on Sunday evening, having been dominant throughout the previous awards over the last few month, as well as this being seen as his best piece of work yet. Denzel is, well Denzel, so he definitely could spoil, especially considering he didn’t gain a Best Director nomination, so the HFPA may want to recognise him here. But Fences didn’t earn a Best Picture nomination, and Viola Davis will almost certainly win Best Supporting Actress, so Denzel may end up short. Garfield could surprise, again due to Hacksaw Ridge’s impressive noms, while Edgerton didn’t earn a SAG nomination, which will hurt him here, and Mortenson who has been getting a surprise amount of nominations on the circuit (including the SAG), is unlikely to win this year.
Best Actress- Drama
- Amy Adams (Arrival)
- Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
- Isabella Huppert (Elle)- Spoiler
- Ruth Negga (Loving)
- Natalie Portman (Jackie)- Predicted Winner
Another difficult category to predict (interestingly because it lacks La La Land’s Emma Stone, who is in the Musical category), this could go one of potentially 3 ways. First, and how I expect it to go, Portman wins the Globe. This seems like the most predictable as the actress has struggled over the last few years and such a career turn around could be praised, particularly because of who she is playing. Again, the current political climate will certainly influence all this years awards. Awarding the actress who plays JFK’s wife, might be too good of an opportunity. However, Huppert could steal. The actress has stormed the previous awards this circuit, with her, Portman and Stone having a pretty equal share. The Hollywood FOREIGN Press Association may also want to put a spotlight on a foreign film, Elle, and this may the perfect time to do it if Toni Erdmann wins the Best Foreign Film category. Amy Adams also has a shot, as the HFPA absolutely love her, and seeming shes less likely to win the Oscar, this may be her time. Chastain and Negga have little chance, so the nominations are their wins.
Best Motion Picture- Comedy/Musical
- 20th Century Women
- Florence Foster Jenkins- Spoiler
- La La Land- Predicted Winner
- Sing Street
It’s almost definitive that La La Land will win this. If it didn’t I’d argue it would probably be one of the greatest upsets in Golden Globe history. It has won an incredible amount of guild and festival awards, its box office numbers are extremely good, it has shown incredible momentum for a musical and it honours Hollywood, which the HOLLYWOOD Foreign Press Association should eat up. I’m going to put Florence Foster Jenkins as the spoiler as it has got three acting noms and is the feel good dramady that the HFPA love. Deadpool could win if the Globes want the headlines (which they often do). 20th Century Women and Sing Street don’t really have a chance, but if one was to prevail, I’d put my money on 20th Century Woman as it has raised more chatter than one would expect for such a film.
Best Actor- Comedy/Musical
- Colin Farrell (The Lobster)
- Ryan Gosling (La La Land)- Predicted Winner
- Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)- Spoiler
- Jonah Hill (War Dogs)
- Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
This is Gosling’s to lose. He’s the clear frontrunner here and no other nominees have near the award haul he has produced so far this circuit. However, as La La Land is most likely going to sweep everywhere else, and Stone is almost certainly going to win her award, the HFPA may want to share the love. Hugh Grant seems like a good candidate, again due Florence Foster Jenkin’s nomination pull as well as the actor being loved by almost everyone. If he can get this, that would put him in an amazing position to earn an Oscar nom. Ryan Reynolds could come in here, again if the HFPA want headlines and to turn some heads, while Farrell certainly deserves the nom but won’t gain the win. Jonah Hill is only here to get this list to five.
Best Actress- Comedy/Musical
- Annette Bening (20th Century Women)- Spoiler
- Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply)
- Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen)
- Emma Stone (La La Land)- Predicted Winner
- Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
If Emma Stone doesn’t win this award, then something must be truly wrong with this world and I’d definitely question how important the Globes were as predictors for the Oscars. Stone has this in the bag, but Bening could jump in there if the HFPA want to award her film and her life’s work. Streep is Streep, so she could always take the win, but she will be getting the Cecile B. DeMille award so that will be her spotlight at the ceremony. Collins and Steinfeld should be happy with the noms.
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)- Predicted Winner
- Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)- Spoiler
- Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
- Dev Patel (Lion)
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
This will be Ali vs Bridges. Both men have a considerable amount of pull in Hollywood and both have secured themselves an array of awards so far. Ali is notching forward slightly due to the subject of his character and as Bridges has been awarded before. But don’t be surprised if this went either way. The only other potential threat is Dev Patel, simply because the Weinstein Company has so much influence over the awards (atleast it used to). Taylor-Johnson is unlikely to gain a win for his thrilling performance, and we are still confused over how Helberg got this nomination in the first place.
Best Supporting Actress
- Viola Davis (Fences)- Predicted Winner
- Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
- Nicole Kidman (Lion)
- Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
- Michelle Williams (Manchester By The Sea)- Spoiler
After winning her Emmy in 2015, it just feels right to give one of the greatest actresses working today an Oscar. Winning this Golden Globe would solidify her chances over Williams who is probably her biggest threat. Williams seems to always come second best when discussing awards, so this may be her chance to shine, but I wouldn’t put money on it. Giving Davis this award would provide recognition to Fences as well as Davis’s earlier works. All other actresses certainly have a shot, but considering Ali will probably win Best Supporting Actor, Harris is unlikely; Nicole Kidman has the Weinstein influence, but not a lot else going for her and Spencer could get a win as the only major nomination for her film, but the nomination should be enough in itself.
- Damien Chazelle (La La Land)- Predicted Winner
- Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
- Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)- Spoiler
- Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
- Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By The Sea)
Everyone but Tom Ford has a chance here (considering he is probably only nominated due to expensive gifts his production team sent the HFPA, though he may hope that gives him the win). The easy money would be to choose Chazelle for bringing viewers La La Land and giving musicals hope in the current cinematic era. Mel Gibson could spoil though, as Hacksaw Ridge wasn’t just a great film, but a fantastic redemption piece for the director after his troubles over the last few years. Jenkins or Lonergan could certainly win for the only two films that seem to have a real chance at upsetting La La Land at the Oscars. It would also be nice to see a black director get the award, especially one so early in his career. But this is also Lonergans first big film recently, so that could go a long way.
- Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
- Tom Ford (Noctunal Animals)- Spoiler
- Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
- Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By The Sea)- Predicted Winner
- Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water)
This will likely be Lonergan’s consolation prize if he loses both Best Director and his film loses Best Drama. But it certainly isn’t a lock. I’m picking Ford’s Nocturnal Animals as a spoiler as I’m cautious of his sway after the gifts he sent, while Chazelle could continue his sweep. Jenkins is less likely here but is definitely not out of the game, while this would be a great boost to actor/screenwriter Taylor Sheridan’s career and Oscar chances.
Best Animated Feature
This has been an incredibly competitive year for animation, and interestingly no Pixar film is on the list this year. That leaves Disney Animation with two nominations, which could vote split and give the award to Kubo. Zootopia still seems like the logical pick considering how it entranced audiences and has a clear central thematic message. But Kubo continues to do well on streaming and has reached a greater audience than most Laika projects do. Sing could spoil if the HFPA want to recognise Illumination entertainment, while My Life as a Zucchini should be happy in knowing it did what Finding Dory could not.
Best Original Score
- Nicolas Britell (Moonlight)
- Justin Hurwitz (La La Land)- Predicted Winner
- Johan Johannsson (Arrival)- Spoiler
- Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka (Lion)
- Hans Zimmer, Pharell Williams and Benjamin Wallfisch (Hidden Figures)
Best Original Song
- “Can’t Stop The Feeling” (Trolls)
- “City of Stars” (La La Land)- Predicted Winner
- “Faith” (Sing)
- “Gold” (Gold)
- “How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)- Spoiler
Best Foreign Film
- Elle- Spoiler
- The Salesman
- Toni Erdmann- Predicted Winner